World economy growth slips to 2.7%

Happy New Year. What can we expect from 2017 ?

More uncertainty is one of few certainties. A new US President this month. The beginning of Brexit by March. French Presidential elections in the spring. German federal elections and Chinese leadership restructuring in the autumn.

Most people would wish for greater stability and growth than in 2016. I repeatedly use a single line to sum up the world’s economy. It was updated in The Economist of 17th December.

Global economic growth has been slipping slowly in the past 3 years, from 3.2% at the end of 2013 to 2.7% in the third quarter of 2016.

China and India contributed 65% of this. Other emerging markets accounted for just 16%, less than at any time since 2008.

Multiple factors could lead to a further slowdown, but higher oil prices and new impetus from the United States could push growth back up towards 3%. Let’s hope so.